Return To HIPC Imminent?

It is popularly held that those who fail to learn from History repeat it. On January 7, 1993, Flight Lieutenant Jerry John Rawlings metamorphosed overnight from Dictator Chairman Rawlings of the Provisional National Defence Council to President Jerry John Rawlings of the democratic Fourth Republic of Ghana. His National Democratic Congress, a daughter of the dictatorial PNDC, had won an easy ride to Parliament in the December 1992 general elections following the New Patriotic Party�s boycott of the parliamentary elections, after alleging that the presidential election held earlier had been rigged for Chairman Rawlings. Between that auspicious day and January 7, 2001, when he handed over power to the NPP�s President John Agyekum Kufour, President Rawlings reportedly ran the Ghana economy aground, with mountains of unserviceable debts. Consequently shortly after assuming office, President Kufour stretchered Ghana to the intensive care unit of the Highly Indebted Poor Country�s hospital where she was admitted for six years. When the NPP President left office on January 7, 2009 the Ghanaian economy had been penciled down for lower middle come status, what with the discovery of black gold in commercial quantities and scheduled for lifting in 2010. However, in the last six years since the Atta Mills /Mahama NDC administration retook power on January 7, 2009, all independent assessments of the Ghanaian economy seem to agree that Ghana has been threading the doomsday trail that forced us to HIPC in 2001. The latest such critique of our economy is from Fitch Ratings, an international financial rating outfit, which in March 2014 placed Ghana�s �B� Issuer Default Rating (IDR) on Negative Outlook. It warned that interest costs and weaker revenue growth combined with rising macroeconomic uncertainty was pushing the budget deficit to over 10 percent of GDP, the third year in a row, when the budgeted deficit had earlier been put at 10 percent. �This combined with the steep depreciation of the Cedi will see debt jump again to 61 percent of GDP by the end of 2014, from 58.2 % at end 2013. Debt servicing costs have also risen steeply to an estimated 6% of GDP in 2014 from 3.3% of GDP in 2011, adding to the intractable nature of Ghana�s fiscal position. �Further stress might arise from Ghanaian banks� repaying dollar loans taken out during 2013 and there are potential risks of further dollar out flows if the Bank of Ghana were unable to roll over swap facilities and loans�, Fitch noted. The Chronicle is watching the unfolding drama critically. May be falling back into the HIPC net is necessary to acquire the financial discipline that the Mahama administration seems to lack. A HIPC economy is a lazy man economy as it requires no creativity to make ends meet. The 6% of GDP that Seth Terkper is currently searching for to service our debts will be given back to us in return for a cap on government expenditure. If Terkper got that he would close his eyes and pay the ballooning public payroll. And for The Chronicle, Ghana going back to HIPC will settle once and for all, in favour of the NPP, the argument between them and the NDC as to who are the better managers of the Ghana economy. A ruling party cannot twice run an economy to the ground for HIPC bailout and still claim it is a capable economic manager. If �Floating Voters�, so-called, are indeed the new kingmakers on the political block, then how they would vote in 2016 requires no soothsayer to predict, if Ghana goes back to HIPC. Exciting days lay ahead, definitely!