An international research group, with a special focus on African capital and commodities market, based in the United States, has predicted a first round victory for the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the December 7 poll.
“Ghana’s December general elections are on course to yield a dramatic surprise outcome,” DaMina Advisors Frontier Markets Specialist said in a report published in New York, United States, on August 17, 2012.
“DaMina Frontier Markets elections statistical model, and our on-the-ground surveys, predict first round opposition center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) win, and a return to opposition of the now ruling center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC) after only four years in power,” the report stated.
In what must be sweet music in the ears of followers of the nation’s largest opposition party, DaMina said, “the NPP are also poised to re-capture a majority of seats in Ghana’s new 275-seat Parliament.
“The NPP’s presidential candidate, former foreign minister, and 2008 presidential candidate, Nana Akufo-Addo, who fell by 40,000 votes short during 2008, is poised at almost 70 years old, to become Ghana’s next President”.
The findings resulted from what DaMina says ‘historic statistical analysis of turn-out patterns in all of Ghana’s 10 regions, new dynamics within the country’s 2010 census data, and on the ground interviews conducted in recent project”.
According to the data analyzed by DaMina, national turn-out for the December poll would hover around 69 per cent certainly lower than 2008 turn-out.
According to DaMina, the NPP would win 52 to 53 per cent of the popular vote in the first round, with the NDC winning not more than 48 per cent. The victory swing is likely to be between three and six per cent, amounting to un-surmountable 300,000 to 600,000 votes.
The research forecasts doom for third parties. In the opinion of DaMina, the combined votes of Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom, Hassan Ayariga and Dr. Abu Sakara Foster may muster not more than three per cent between them.
According to the report, three months before the 2008 presidential and parliamentary elections, DaMina Chief African analysis’ Eurosia Group, predicted accurately that late Prof. John Evans Atta Mills of the NDC would win the second round vote by a margin of some 45,000.
Prof. Mills led the NDC to capture power by 40,000 votes DaMina made a number of very interesting revelations. It said traditional incumbency would not help President John Dramani Mahama, with barely two months to the vote.
The research established that the Mahama-Amissah Arthur ticket is considerably weaker than the Nana Addo-Dr. Bawumia combination.
While accepting that sympathy votes are likely to leave the Central Region in the hands of the NDC, such votes would not be enough to catch up on the NPP which is poised to win in the Western Region, reeling from disappointment with the share of the spoils in oil revenue.
It says the swing Bring Ahafo Region will vote for the NPP. But surprise of surprises is the information that the NPP, which has kicked against the creation of 45 additional constituencies by the Electoral Commission, are poised to gain from the new created seats.
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