As the political clock inches closer to December 7, pushing all the political parties traversing the country to have a last minute jaw-jaw with electorates, all indications and polls by independent research firms are pointing to the fact that the upcoming election will not travel beyond the first run.
Latest among the polls that The Al-Hajj has sighted is a nationwide survey conducted by the Bureau of National Investigation (BNI) which puts President John Dramani Mahama, the presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress ahead of his main contender, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, the candidate of the opposition New Patriotic Party.
In an official BNI report on the upcoming election, President John Mahama will firmly bag a whopping 53.9% to win the December 7 election in the first run against Nana Akufo-Addo who will have to taste his second and possibly, last defeat at the presidency with 42.2% amidst pockets of skirmishes.
With this glaring evidence, handlers of Nana Akufo-Addo would have to start preparing him for a sour ride to an awful defeat, which is likely to throw him into political oblivion.
This latest report by the BNI collaborates recent polls by some highly reputable and credible independent research firms, which in no doubt has firmly positioned the ruling party in pool pooh position of winning the December 7 election in the first run.
According to the report, given a minimal error of plus or minus three percent with the ruling party struggling to explain tons of issues relating to the payment of judgment debts and supposed corruption allegations by its founder, Jerry John Rawlings and the opposition and the perceived display of arrogance by some government appointees, President John Mahama will still win the election in the first round.
Among the factors the report indicated will contribute to the President’s first run victory is his persona, his youthful exuberance, incumbency advantage and most importantly the relatively more than average performance by the Mills/Mahama administration in four years in the areas of infrastructural development, health, education, agriculture etc.
The possibility of attracting heaps of sympathy votes through the death of the late president John Evans Atta Mills and the modest and humane personality traits of both Professor Mills and President John Mahama were also captured in the report as President John Mahama’s magic wand to first run victory.
The NPP candidate the report indicates had people doubting his commitment to peace and his ability to unite the country, especially when his pronouncements on the campaign trail have all pointed to acts that are likely to destabilize the peace of the country.
Per the findings of the report, majority of Ghanaians bought into the flagship policy of the NPP’s candidate; free SHS, but a sizable number of them according to the report were, however, skeptical of its full implementation.
Despite a number of peace interventions by the National Peace council, civil society and some peace loving individuals and organizations, the report suggests the potential of violence in the upcoming election is higher as compared to the 2008 elections.
However, the report states that the state security apparatus have been well resourced and positioned to rise up to any occasion in case of any eventuality.
The report cited the polarized nature of the country along extreme partisan and ethnic lines and the deep divisions created by some media houses in promoting open insults and the ‘high stakes’ in the December 7 polls as a result of the ‘oil windfall’, as possible reasons for violence.
It is of great value and an attempt to curtail any form of political violence that the Institute of Democratic Governance, National Peace Council, NPC and Manyhia Palace yesterday brought all the presidential candidates to pledge an unwavering commitment to peace.
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