At The Akosombo Economic Forum ��Home Grown� Policies Shot Down, Participants Back Immediate IMF-Bailout

Majority of the participants, especially economists and financial experts at the on-going National Economic Forum at Senchi in Akosombo are kicking against the government�s so-called homegrown economic policies aimed at fiscal consolidation and macro-economic stability, a source close to government has told The aL-hAJJ. Instead, they are expected to advise the government to swallow its pride and accept an International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported program to attract some needed balance of payment to support the depleted reserves at the central bank. This would provide the expected buffer to stabilize the currency and help restore economic stability for a sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction. The opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) said it will not attend the Akosombo forum citing government�s decision to accept prescriptions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that would include freeze on public sector jobs and cut on wages and salaries. However, President Mahama, in his opening address at the forum said �since 2013, we have undertaken several measures to restore macro-economic stability and achieve fiscal consolidation. These measures were scattered in many policy directives including the budgets of 2013 and 2014. There were some measures also included in the mid-year review of last year's budget, 2013. We realized that in view of the scattered nature of these policies and measures, they did not promote a fair understanding of what we wanted to achieve.� �In early April therefore, we decided to aggregate all these measures and initiatives into a single document and presented it to the people of Ghana through their representatives in Parliament. A more detailed version of the document that was read in Parliament was later presented to the IMF as part of the Article IV consultations that it undertakes with all of its member states. �I wish to take this opportunity to state, with great emphasis, that as President I have not taken any decision to enter our country into an IMF programme. What we are concentrating on is the preparation of a homegrown strategy of fiscal consolidation. It is our expectation that both our domestic and our international partners will join us in the implementation of this strategy. The briefs that were presented to Parliament and then later to the IMF under our Article IV consultation represent work in progress and would be finalised through broad consultations, such as the forum we are holding today. Later today, Minister of Finance Tekper will make a presentation in which, I am sure he will highlight some of these initiatives. �It is a tragedy of our very polluted and extremely partisan political environment that such a simple misunderstanding of the relevance of this innocuous document should become the basis for a major political player to stay away from this all-important national exercise.� He added. For almost eighteen months now, the economy has been buffeted by grave challenges with government incapable of repeating the record economic turnaround we saw in June 2009 when the economy was facing much worse situation after the 2008 election-related macro-economic imbalances. According to the IMF, While Ghana�s economic growth still reached 7 percent in 2013, it has slowed from previous years, (15 per cent in 2011 and 8.8 per cent in 2012), and the IMF projects a further slowdown to less than 5 percent this year, as high interest rates and a depreciating currency are depressing domestic demand. At the same time, the economy�s continued large twin deficits (fiscal and current account) and high financing needs leave it vulnerable to weaker external conditions. Government�s remedial strategy The Government of Ghana has recognized the economic challenges staring the country on the face, and has acted across several fronts aimed at restoring economic stability. In response to shortfalls in tax collection and grants, and ongoing overruns in the wage bill, the government in 2013 imposed levies on certain imports and on profits of specific sectors. It also eliminated fuel subsidies; sharply raised electricity and water tariffs; and compressed other spending. Despite these significant policy efforts, the 2013 fiscal cash deficit reached 10.1 percent of GDP. In the near term, the government�s 2014 budget focuses on mobilizing additional revenue, while containing current primary spending. The value-added tax rate was raised and the coverage was broadened to previously exempted activities. At the same time, there is an increased effort to control the wage bill through tight budget limits and strengthened payroll monitoring. Again, in early April this year, the government issued a policy document outlining its homegrown strategy to address current economic vulnerabilities. Finance Minister, Seth Terkper addressed Parliament on the raging economic challenges and outlined the so-called home grown economic policies designed to restore macro-economic stability and sustainable economic growth. The strategy focuses on public sector reform, including rationalization of the public service; weaning off subvented (public service) agencies from the payroll; restructuring of statutory funds to reduce budget rigidities; and revenue administration reform to increase effectiveness and improve tax compliance. Moreover, the Bank of Ghana further tightened monetary policy in early 2014, with an increase in both the policy rate and reserve requirements. Yet administered price increases and a depreciating cedi are fueling inflation, which rose to 14� percent in March�above the end-year target band of 9.5 +/- 2 percent. More robust measures required The IMF said in its review that a strong package of policy measures is required to address large imbalances and provide the needed space for infrastructure and social priority spending. IMF staff welcomed the government�s homegrown strategy, adding it should �now be translated into specific, quantified, and time-bound actions.� In light of the significant economic vulnerabilities, the review recommended taking further steps toward a larger and more front-loaded fiscal adjustment. This could set off a virtuous cycle of lower fiscal deficits and falling interest rates, creating room for higher social and infrastructure spending and a crowding-in of private sector activity, consistent with the government�s transformation agenda. Rebuild reserves The IMF suggested further monetary policy tightening if inflationary pressures from second-round effects of large administered price increases and from the exchange rate depreciation persist. It recommended tight liquidity management, including less direct financing of the fiscal deficit. The Bank of Ghana should also allow the exchange rate to continue to adjust to prevent further erosion of an already low reserve buffer and to rebuild reserves as external pressures subside. But speaking to the Accra-based Joy FM, �Finance Minister, Seth Terkper, has downplayed the dire issues raised by the IMF.� �He told Evans Mensah on Joy FM�s Top Story, Tuesday, that the prevailing situation is different from what was assessed by the IMF in February based on the third quarter report of the Ghana Statistical Service. He cited for instance the increasing prices of cocoa and gold, which is positive for the country. �...the fourth quarter report has been released, and we all know that the economy has grown robustly at 7.4, the IMF has since not revised the 4.5, which was based on an economy, which was going to grow at about 5 percent. So I think that it is about timing issue in our discussions, which we must take into perspective.� �The Finance Minister also stated calls for specific time-bound action plans to reverse the downward trend, reinforces exactly what the government is doing. �He strongly defended the Bank of Ghana�s measures on foreign exchange, which the Fund says would not stabilize the Ghana cedi in the face of rising public spending and expenditure. �The Bank of Ghana measures to arrest the cedi fall have not failed,� Mr. Terkper emphatically said to rebuff the suggestions of the IMF. �Additionally, estimations by government agencies, Mr. Terkper said, suggest �the trajectory for revenue would be different, the trajectory for growth itself would be different". �He recalled the President's show of faith in government's middle term policies at the ongoing National Economic Forum at Senchi near Akosombo, stating, "First of all, we know that we are going to be moving into a gas era, secondly we know that gold prices have tapered off, if not increased, the decline has stopped, cocoa prices have gone up, the one-year long disruption of gas supply from Nigeria has been resolved, even though we are not getting as much gas as we would, and our own gas is going to come on stream; we should be hopeful.� �He is certain by 2016, Ghana would see a turnaround in its economy. �No country, and Ghana is not exception, even when it is under an IMF programme turns around its economy in one-year. And Ghana has had IMF programmes, the minimum period for the turnaround is three years under all the programmes,� he said.