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In my last article I stated I was not going to do any analysis on the NPP NEC's proposal on reserving certain constituencies (12 of them) in the Greater-Accra region to be contested by only the indigenes.

The reason is that the Electoral Commission of Ghana does not collect candidates' biostatistics based on tribe or ethnicity. It may, however, sound hypocritical to say that such an analysis is “tribalistic” or whatever connotative meaning we may want to give it because it is a fact that we all, as Ghanaians, belong to one ethnic group or the other. The only problem is that it is difficult to do any meaningful analysis based on who is an indigene and who is not.

But after Abdul Malik Kweku Baako Jnr., on News File last Saturday March 4 2015, threw the challenge to Ben Ephson, I have decided to give it a try as we wait for Mr. Ephson to come out with his analysis. I have taken my time to research the background of each of the parliamentary candidates for the two major parties (NPP and NDC) in these twelve constituencies from 1996 to 2012. This research includes, but not limited to, the origin of their names, their hometowns and some other details. Some of the names are very obvious and make it easier to identify. Names like Nii, Vanderpuye, Tackie, Ashitey, Duah, Boye, Laryea, Ayikoi, etc are just straight-forward.

One person for whom I'm not able to trace origin is Abraham Osei-Aidoo, former MP for Tema West. Therefore, on the assumption that the names Osei and Aidoo are not originally Ga or Dangme, I will treat him as non-indigene for the purpose of this discussion. In addition, even though Fritz Baffour was born and bred in Accra (Korle Gono), his origin is traced to the Central region and therefore will be treated as a non-indigene for the purpose of this piece.

The result is what is discussed below.

AN ANALYSIS OF INDIGENES AND NON-INDIGENES

From 1996 to 2012 there were a total of fifty-two (52) possible parliamentary nominations a party could make in these twelve (12) constituencies and the NPP did make use of all the 52. The NDC is the only other party that made all the 52 nominations.

Out of these 52 nominations by the NPP, forty-five (45) of them, representing 86.54%, were indigenes (Gas or Ga-Dangmes). The rest seven (7) were non-indigenes. These are Cecilia Eguakun for Dadekotopon in 1996, Abraham Osei-Aidoo for Tema West in 1996, 2000 and 2004. The rest are Emmanuel Amprong Agbozo for Kpone-Katamanso in 2000, Francis Kojo Smith for Ablekuma South and Moses Anim for Trobu-Amasaman (now Amasaman) both in 2008.

Out of the 45 indigenous candidates, only nineteen (19) of them had won over the period. Twenty-six (26) (almost 58 percent) of them failed to win. In all the 26 failed attempts, it was only on two (2) occasions that a non-indigene from another party had beaten an indigene from NPP to the seat - Frederic Fritz Bafour (NDC) beat Noel Joseph Narh of the NPP for the Ablekuma South seat in 2012 and Bright Edward Kodzo Demordzi (NDC) also beat Adjetey Larbie (NPP) to the newly-created Bortianor-Ngleshie-Amanfro seat also in 2012. All the rest 24 came up against fellow indigenes from the NDC who defeated them.

On the other round, Abraham Osei-Aidoo, former NPP MP for Tema West is the only non-indigene who was able to win a seat for the NPP among these 12 constituencies. He did so on three different occasions, beating an indigene (Rtd. Flt. Lt. M. Godfrey Nii Tackey) once in the 2000 elections in the process. On the other two occasions, he came up against non-indigenes - Esther Ilan-Agbodo Ogbogu in 1996 and George Komla Medie in 2004 - before he was replaced by Irene Naa Torshie Addo in 2008.

CHANCES OF THE NPP IN THE 12 AFFECTED CONSTITUENCIES IN THE 2016 ELECTIONS

Let’s also take a closer look at the performance of NPP candidates in the twelve constituencies over the years and also assess the chances of the NPP in these constituencies in the 2016 elections.

* ABLEKUMA SOUTH CONSTITUENCY - Frederic Fritz Baffour, NDC

Ablekuma South seat is currently being occupied by Hon. Fritz Bafour of the NDC who won the seat from the NPP in 2008 with a margin of 4.82% (over 5,200 votes). This seat used to be an NPP seat when the late Theresa Naa Ameley Tagoe won it with absolute majority in 1996, 2000 and 2004. But after Ablekuma West was separated from it in 2012, Hon. Fritz Baffour consolidated his position by increasing his share of votes from 51% in 2008 to over 56% in 2012; and also increasing the margin from 5,283 to over 10,000 votes in the process. What should be worrying to the NPP is that Noel Joseph Narh performed very poorly in 2012 compared to Francis Kojo Smith (a supposed non-indigene) in 2008.

MY VIEW: Theresa Tagoe's records clearly show that being an indigene is necessary but Noel Joseph Narh has also proven that that alone is not sufficient. The NPP can give Fritz Baffour (who was born and bred in Korle Gono) a fight if they get someone who is not only an indigene, but also very popular within the constituency in the calibre of the late Theresa Tagoe. Until that happens, they should forget the Ablekuma South seat for the 2016 election.

* AMASAMAN - Emmanuel Nii Okai Laryea, NDC

The former Trobu-Amasaman constituency was created in 2004 out of the then Ga South (now Weija-Gbawe) constituency. In 2012 the constituency was split further into Trobu and Amasaman constituencies. When it was created in 2004 the NPP won it in a straight fight between two indigenes - Samuel Nee-Aryeetey Attoh of the NPP and Ernest Attuquaye Armah of the NPP. The NPP came top with just 442 vote’s margin. However, in 2008, they lost it to the NDC's Ernest Attuquaye Armah who beat Moses Anim (a non-indigene) by over 2,800 votes. In 2012, after the split, the NDC now improved on their performance from about 49% in 2008 to almost 52% in 2012, extending the margin from about four percent (4%) in 2008 to almost 14% in 2012.

MY VIEW: Even though the NPP candidate in 2012, Clement Nii Lamptey, was indegene, that did not help the NPP in anyway cover grounds on the NDC. In fact, the NDC's Emmanuel Nii Okai Laryea, a fellow indigene, extended the gap. This I believe was due to the carving away of Trobu which is predominantly NPP (from the 2012 results).

Amasaman constituency in its present form seems to be predominantly NDC. Irrespective of the origin of the NPP candidate, I foresee the NDC winning it again.

* BORTIANOR-NGLESHIE-AMANFRO - Bright Edward Kodzo Demordzi, NDC

Bortianor-Ngleshie-Amanfro was one of the close shaves for the NDC in 2012. Hon. Kodzo Demordzi of the NDC (a non-indigene) beat an indigene, the NPP's Adjetey Larbie, by just 188 votes. The constituency was one of the 45 newly-created in 2012 and was split from Domeabra-Obom constituency. Both candidates got less than 47% of the valid votes cast.

MY VIEW: Domeabra-Obom itself is an NDC seat. But judging from the closeness of the contest here in Bortianor-Ngleshie-Amanfro, the NPP can argue that having Adjetey Larbie, an indigene, contest played a role. This is a constituency that can go either way in 2016 and this will depend on other factors apart from getting an indigene as the candidate. One of the constituencies to watch out for in 2016.

* DADEKOTOPON - Nii Amasah Kojo Namoale, NDC

With the exception of the 2004 outcomes, Dadekotopon is one of those constituencies that, since 1996, if your presidential or parliamentary candidate wins there, it gives you a strong signal that you are winning the national elections as well. This is a seat that has largely been contested by indigenes. Sylvester Mensah won it for the NDC in 1996 with over 6,000 margin but lost out to the NPP's Godfried Ako-Nai with even a bigger margin. Nii Amasah Namoale won it back for the NDC in 2004 and increasingly keeps consolidating it for the NDC over the subsequent elections, from 7,000 winning margin in 2004 to over 12,600 in 2008 and 15,583 winning gap in 2012. The NPP has done worse over the same period with three different indigenous candidates.

MY VIEW: The NPP does not have any chance of winning this seat back. The best they can do is to close the gap. Nothing more.

* DOMEABRA-OBOM, Daoud Anum Yemoh, NDC

This seat is like an NDC seat in Upper West or Upper East Region. The NPP with Nii Akwei Addo managed 22.19% and 21.58% votes in 2004 (when Domeabra-Obom was created from the then Ga South) and 2008 respectively. Hon. Yemoh of the NDC has this seat in the bag from the word go (almost 70% in 2004 and 73% in 2008). In 2012, he was given a little fight by one Paul Cofie, an independent candidate who broke ranks with the NDC. In that instance, the NPP's Sylvanus Tetteh Martey came distant third with just 2,666 votes.

MY VIEW: Whether an indigene or not, this is one of the seats to forget by the NPP.

* KORLE KLOTTEY - Nii Armah Ashietey, NDC

This is one of the "King-Maker" constituencies in Ghana elections, in the sense that whichever party wins here (both presidential and parliamentary) wins the national elections. It has always been contested by the indigenes from both parties. The NDC won it in 1996, the NPP won it in 2000 and 2004; and the NDC won it back in 2008 and 2012.

The late David Lamptey of the NDC won in 1996 but lost to the NPP's Nii Adu Daku Mante by over 9,000 votes. That margin was reduced to less than 2,000 votes when Nii Armah Ashietey entered the contest for the NDC but lost. He emerged the winner in 2008 with 50.7% of the votes, defeating the NPP's Samuel Adjei Tawiah by 2,646 vote’s margin. Nii Armah Ashietey won it again in 2012, once again beating Samuel Adjei Tawiah, this time, with a smaller margin of 1,275 votes.

Hon. Ashietey's share of votes also reduced from 50.7% in 2008 to 48.55% in 2012. The NPP also improved a little from 46.28% to 46.83% over the same period.

MY VIEW: One of the seats to keep an eagle's eye on in 2016 as an observer. I reserve my comments on this one for obvious reasons, at least for now.

* KPONE-KATAMANSO - Joseph Nii Laryea Afotey-Agbo, NDC

Apart from Emmanuel Amprong Agbozo (NPP, 2000), all the contestants from both NDC and NPP since 1996 have always been indigenes. But the NDC dominates over that period. The closest the NPP came was in 2012 when they reduced an over 30% gap Hon. Laryea Afotey-Agbo created in 2008 to almost half of it (16.38%) with about 41% share of the valid votes. Afotey-Agbo's share have been fluctuating from 53.8% in 2004 to almost 63% in 2008 before coming down again in 2012 to a little over 57%.

MY VIEW: No matter what happens, the NDC will still win this seat.

* KROWOR - Nii Oakley Quaye-Kumah, NDC

Krowor is one of the swing constituencies across the country. With the exception of 2008 and 2012, the previous winners won with less than 2,000 vote’s margin. The NDC's Joshua Alabi won it in 1996 but lost out to the NPP's Emmanuel Adjei Boye in 2000. Abraham Laryea Odai retained it for the NPP in 2004 before Joseph Ayikoi Otoo lost heavily (compared to previous NPP candidates) in 2008 to Nii Oakley Quaye-Kumah of the NDC. Ayikoi Otoo, however, closed the gap from 12.4% in 2008 to just 4.29% in 2012. In vote terms, 6,200 votes gap was reduced to about 2,800 over that period. Nii Oakley Quaye-Kumah of the NDC also had his almost 55% share of valid votes in 2008 reduced to just a little over 49% in 2012.

MY VIEW: Can Joseph Ayikoi Otoo go on to overtake his nemesis Nii Oakley Quaye-Kumah for the Krowor seat if given the nod once again by the NPP? Or the NPP will look somewhere for someone else to come and wrestle the seat from the NDC? Being one of the "king-maker" constituencies, I keep my opinions to myself for now. But surely, this is one to watch out for in 2016.

* LEDZOKUKU - Benita Sena Okity-Duah, NDC

All the candidates here for both NPP and the NDC have all been indigenes since 1996. Just like Korle Klottey and Krowor constituencies, Ledzokuku is one of the "king-makers". Your candidate wins here and your party wins the national elections.

In 1996, Nii Adjei-Boye Sekan won for the NDC with 49.62% share of the votes but lost the seat 4 years later to the NPP's Edie Akita who had 48.37% to the incumbent's 34.37% in 2000. Both parties got new candidates in 2004 and Gladys Norley Ashitey came top with just over 43% of the votes. Nii Nortey Duah of the NDC came really close with 41.96%. So the NPP won the seat with just 870 vote’s margin in 2004.

It is said that coming events cast their shadows.

Nii Nortey Duah eventually humiliated Gladys Ashitey with almost 57% of the votes, creating a gap of almost 16% in 2008. Unfortunately for Nortey Duah he lost the NDC primaries to Benita Sena Okity-Duah who also ensured that the NDC retains the absolute majority (55%) in 2012. However, Gladys Ashitey also covered ground on her from 40.9% in 2008 to a little over 44% in 2012, closing the margin from 15.98% to 10.98% over the period.

MY VIEW: You can form your own opinion based on the facts and figures presented above. I reserve mine for now. But watch out for Ledzokuku in 2016.

* ODODODIODIOO - Edwin Nii Lantey Vanderpuye, NDC

Odododiodioo is a predominantly NDC seat and all the NPP and NDC candidates since 1996 were indigenes. The NPP won here in 2000 (Reginald Nii Bi Ayi-Bonte with 51.35% beat the incumbent Nii Okaija Adamafio of the NDC); even though it lasted for only four years before the seat reverted to the NDC. Samuel Nii Ayi Mankattah won it back for the NDC with 52.41% compared to the NPP's 46.4%, not long before he passed away in 2005. Jonathan Nii Tackie Komey won the resultant by-election and retained the seat for the NDC in 2008 with almost 56% of the votes compared to the NPP's 41.52%.

Over the period between 1996 and 2008, the runner-ups had had at least 40% of the votes and the winners were within the range of 50% to 55% inclusive. But with the entrance of Nii Lantey Vanderpuye in 2012, that trend has changed. He pulled almost 63% of the votes, whiles the NPP had about 35%, with a record gap of 19,698 votes from 8,687 created by Tackie Komey in 2008.

MY VIEW: The NPP has no chance of winning this seat in 2016. The NDC with Nii Lantey Vanderpuye will still win it - maybe, with a slimmer margin.

* TEMA EAST - Daniel Nii Kwartei Titus-Glover, NPP

Tema East had, until the 2012 election, always voted NPP, both presidential and parliamentary. But it voted skirt and blouse in 2012. And what a close shave it was for Titus-Glover? Just three (3) votes made the difference. I remember the ballots were recounted two more times.

All the candidates here (NPP and NDC) over the period were all indigenes. Ishmael Ashitey won it for the NPP in 1996 with over 48% of valid votes. He improved that performance to over 56% in 2000 before it drops again to 48% in 2004. The NDC's performance was also fluctuating within the same period. In 2008, the NPP improved again to 49.43% with Samuel Evans Ashong Narh. But NDC, also with Robert Kempes Papa Nii, improved from about 32% in 2004 to 40.34% in 2008.

After Tema Central was taken out of the Tema East, we nearly had a deadlock in 2012. Titus-Glover and Papa Nii both had 47.7% of the votes and it was only three (3) votes which decided that Titus-Glover is currently the MP for Tema East.

MY VIEW: Some NPP folks in the constituency argue that the keenness of the contest was as a result of their supposedly strong-holds being taken out to form the new Tema Central constituency, resulting in that near-deadlock situation in 2012. They may have a point. But I am yet to be convinced. I can't wait for how events will unfold in 2016.

* TEMA WEST - Irene Naa Torshie Addo, NPP

Abraham Osei-Aido, on the basis of the initial assumption, is the only non-indigene to have won a seat on the ticket of the NPP in the 12 affected constituencies since 1996. He won the Tema West seat with over 59% of the votes in 1996 and consolidated it further in 2000 with 61.22% before experiencing a huge drop to about 53% in 2008.

Irene Naa Torshie Addo (an indigene)took over in 2008 and improved the level to 55% in 2008. But she was lucky to run away with a win when her over 8,600 votes margin in 2008 was cut to just 945 in 2012 by the NDC’s Samuel Ofosu-Ampofo. She won with less than 50% of the valid votes, the first time it ever happens to the NPP in the constituency since 1996.

MY VIEW: Just like Tema East, the NPP folks on the ground say, parts of Tema West was also carved to form the new Tema Central. That resulted in the closeness of the votes. They may be right. But let's wait and see what happens in 2016.

CONCLUSIONS:

From the facts and analyses above, we can draw the following conclusions:

* Eighty-eight (88) out of 104 parliamentary candidates, representing almost 85%, who stood on the ticket of either the NPP or NDC between 1996 and 2012 in the 12 constituencies, were indigenes.

* Forty-five (45) out of NPP's 52 parliamentary candidates (about 87%) in these constituencies over the period were indigenes.

* All the NPP parliamentary candidates in the last election were indigenes but only two of them won. Over 83% of them failed to win.

* Anyone running to become MP in any of the twelve (12)constituencies has a greater chance of winning on the ticket of NDC (59.62%) than on the NPP's (42.22%) or any other party's ticket. The chance is even greater on the NDC's ticket (almost 63%) if you are an indigene compared to the NPP's 42.86%.

* All the current incumbent MPs occupying the twelve (12) affected seats are indigenes, except Bright Edward Kodzo Demordzi, NDC MP for Bortianor-Ngleshie-Amanfro.

* Ten (10) out of the 12 affected seats are currently being occupied by NDC MPs. The NPP occupies only Tema East and Tema West constituencies.

* The NDC will retain six (6) out of the twelve affected seats in 2016 (that is, Amasaman, Ablekuma South, Odododiodioo, Kpone-Katamanso, Domeabra-Obom and Dadekotopon). That means four of their currently occupied seats are not safe in 2016. These are Bortianor-Ngleshie-Amanfro, Korle Klottey, Krowor and Ledzokuku constituencies.

The NPP is also not guaranteed its Tema East and Tema West seats.

* Whoever wins Korle Klottey, Krowor and Ledzokuku seats is likely to form the next majority in Parliament.

It is very clear that the NPP NEC's directive or announcement was unnecessary because it does not change anything. These seats have always been contested by indigenes since 1996; and most of them from the NPP lose not because they are non-indigenes or otherwise but because of some other factors. Researching and understanding these other factors will enhance the fortunes of the NPP in these constituencies rather than just sitting down and issuing arm-chair directives.

The writer Justice George Torgboh is an Election Research Analyst. You can get more of these analyses on www.facebook.com/GHElectionsFile. Email: [email protected]. Phone: 0233630924.