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Not long ago, the NDC declared "OPERATION ONE MILLION ASHANTI VOTES FOR MAHAMA IN 2016". In an earlier article, the analysis of past performances of the NDC in the Ashanti Region shows that it is an unachievable target.

Well, the New Patriotic Party (NPP), feeling threatened in its "stronghold", also declared its own operation in the supposedly stronghold of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). However, unlike the NDC's declaration, the NPP's came in different versions. First, it was the party's regional chairman John Peter Amewu who declared a 50% target. Then a youth group of the NPP within the Volta Region also emerged with its name clearly stating what they intend to achieve - OPERATION 40% VOLTA VOTES FOR NPP IN 2016. Then finally, national executive members started talking. They are targeting 30% of votes in the Volta Region in 2016.

Is it realistic??? Can they achieve it??? Join me, let's embark on another statistical journey, this time, into the Volta Region.

THE NPP's PAST PERFORMANCE IN THE VOLTA REGION

As I stated in an earlier article, after all the campaigning, strategies and propaganda by a party, how much votes that party is able to get is largely dependent on two key determinants - Total number of registered voters and how much of that number turns out (voter turnout) on the day of election.

In the 1992 election, the NPP (with Prof. Albert Adu-Boahen) had 17,295 votes (3.41%) out of a total valid vote of 478,730. The NDC and former president Rawlings, unsurprisingly, took the chunk of that figure. In 1996, the NPP (with former president Kufuor) almost doubled its votes from 17,295 in 1992 to 34,538 representing 99.7% increase over that period. This figure is 4.73% out of 730,251 Valid Votes.

Four years later, the NPP had 49,768 votes (8.48%) out of total valid votes of 586,703 in the 2000 elections. Even though the NPP, again, increased its votes, the increment was at a decreasing rate of 44.10% compared to 99.7% increase in 1996. The best year-on-year performance of the NPP came in the 2004 elections when the party more than doubled its votes in the Volta Region from 49,768 in 2000 to 100,659 in the 2004 elections (over 102% jump). This figure represents 14.26% of 705,827 total valid votes.

In 2008, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo and the NPP could not maintain the momentum as the party's votes in the Volta Region, for the first time, fell from the 2004 level to 99,584 (a little over 1% fall) out of a total valid votes figure of 664,888, even though in percentage terms, the party's share of votes increased marginally from 14.26% in 2004 to 14.98% in 2008.

Finally in 2012, the NPP once again recorded six-digit figure of 111,149 votes, an 11.61% increase over the 2008 votes. This figure was even larger than the 2004 one. But in percentage terms, it is a poorer performance - 12.93% out of 859,618 valid votes - compared to 2004 and 2008.

COMPARING THE NPP's PERFORMANCE TO THE NDC's IN THE VOLTA REGION

In 1992, the NPP had 3.41% of Volta votes whiles the NDC had a massive majority of 93.24%. The NDC and the NPP both increased their shares to 94.55% and 4.73% respectively in 1996. This parallel increase could be due to the other smaller parties like NIP and PHP either falling out or forming alliance with the two major parties, leaving PNC as the only smaller party in the race who pulled less than one percent (0.72%) of the votes.

However, the NPP increased its share of Volta votes by 3.75% to almost 8.5% in the 2000 elections. The NDC, on the other hand, had its massive dominance in the region slashed by over 800 percentage points, from almost 95% in 1996 to a little over 86% in 2000. The NPP again continued making inroads into the Volta Region by again massively improving its performance by almost 6% to more than 14% in 2004. The NDC's free fall continued in 2004 to 83.83% and further downhill to 82.88% in 2008. The NPP could however not continue the momentum as it could only increase its share of votes in the region by just 0.72% in 2008.

That inertia in 2008 was a sign of things to come as the NPP's share of Volta Region votes dropped, for the first time, by over 2% from 14.98% in 2008 to 12.93% in 2012. The NDC, also for the first time since 1996, saw a positive growth rate of 3.11% by increasing their share of Volta votes from 82.88% in 2008 to 85.46% in 2012, but could not match the performances of the Rawlings-days.

OBSERVATIONS:

1. The NPP between 1992 and 2012 has seen almost 543% increase in its votes in the Volta Region compared to the NDC's 65% increase over the same period.

2. The NPP's share of votes in the Volta Region before 2008 (post Akufo-Addo) was growing at an average rate of over 62% every subsequent election. But that seems to have slowed down since 2008 and even went to negative (-13.68%) in 2012. Compare that to the NDC who, since 2000, had been experiencing a negative growth rate in their share of votes in the Volta Region but recorded a positive growth rate (for the first time since 1996) of over 3% in 2012.

3. The NPP, as a party in power with all the government machinery and state resources available to them, in 2004 and 2008 pulled less than 15% of votes in the Volta Region, and those were their best performances.

4. If the NPP are targeting 30% of Volta votes in 2016, then that would mean more than 17% increase over their 2012 performance of 12.93% or about 15% increase over their best performance in 2008. Between 1992 (when the NPP had its worst performance) and 2008, when it had its best performance, the party was only able to increase its share of Volta votes by just 11.57%, which even went down in the last election.

5. If the NPP in the Volta Region had a 9.52% increase in 20-years (1992-2012), how are they going to achieve the 17.07% increment within 4-years??? The strategies to be adopted in order to achieve this feet, as given by the party's General Secretary Kwabena Agyei Agyapong and the Director of Communications Nana Akomea are laughable. For instance, granted that the people of the Volta Region are "fed up and tired of" this NDC government, how does that result into votes for the NPP??? I'm also struggling to see how "increasing the party's visibility" in the Volta Region could result into votes for the NPP - as if the people of the Volta Region are not aware of a party called NPP???

CONCLUSION:

* The 30% target is not unrealistic. If the NPP had maintained its average growth rate of 62% in the Kufuor era, it could be highly possible to achieve or even more than achieve it in 2016. But judging from recent results, its growth rate in the Volta Region did not only slow down as seen in 2008 (5.05% growth) but it actually went into negative in 2012 (-13.68%). With the same candidate and in opposition, it will be difficult to turn things around for the better.

* Even though the 30% target looks a daunting task, the people of the Volta Region, just like any Ghanaian, are human beings who have specific wants and needs. Conducting a further research into what could make them change their minds and vote for the NPP can go a long way to help the NPP formulate a better strategy to prosecute their "OPERATION 30% VOLTA VOTES" agenda. Why should the people of the Volta Region trust the NPP with their votes??? What will an Akufo-Addo-led government do differently to change the plight of the people of the Volta Region, assuming they are "fed up and tired" of the Mahama-led NDC government??? I believe those are the things the electorates in the Volta Region would like to hear.