<<Print>>

Irish voters are heading to the polls for a second referendum on the EU's Lisbon Treaty - a vote that may decide the future of long-delayed EU changes. They previously rejected the treaty in a June 2008 referendum, by a margin of almost 7%. This time opinion polls suggest the Yes camp will win. The Republic of Ireland is the only one of the EU's 27 member states to put the treaty to a referendum. Ireland's economy has been hit hard by recession since the last vote was held. The treaty, aimed at streamlining decision-making in the enlarged bloc, cannot take effect unless all the member states ratify it. Around three million Irish citizens are eligible to vote on Friday. There will be no exit polling during the day, but turnout estimates will be known once polls close. Counting will begin on Saturday, with the referendum result not expected until early Saturday afternoon. Apart from Ireland, the only other countries yet to ratify it are the Czech Republic and Poland. Despite opposition calls for a referendum in the UK, the treaty has been ratified there by parliament. All of Ireland's major parties campaigned for a Yes vote except the nationalist Sinn Fein. The Yes camp also had some lavish donations from big business. The repeat referendum is about the same treaty text, but since last year EU leaders have given specific commitments on issues which made some Irish voters nervous last time. The country will not be forced to legalise abortion, to lose control over taxation, and will not have its neutrality threatened. Mary Hanafin, Ireland's social and family affairs minister, told the BBC opponents of the treaty had "very good reasons" for voting No in 2008. But she said those concerns had now been addressed, and she expected a different outcome this time around. "They were concerned about issues that were raised about neutrality, about taxation, about the right to life, about losing our commissioner. "Our colleagues in Europe have given us legal guarantees on all of those issues, and because they have been addressed and because people are looking to the future, the economy of this country and our place in Europe. We believe it'll be a Yes vote." The chances of the treaty being rejected a second time appear pretty slim, says the BBC's Jonny Dymond, in Dublin. Ireland's economic situation is so grim, he adds, that many voters are unwilling to risk further turmoil with another No vote, and while many would dearly love to punish the hugely unpopular administration, most will hold off until the next election. However, opponents continue to maintain that Lisbon undermines national sovereignty and concentrates too much power in Brussels.Ratifying the treaty would bring in some major changes within the EU. It would expand the policy areas subject to qualified majority voting (QMV), rather than unanimity. It would also establish a new post of president of the European Council the grouping of EU states' leaders - and a high representative for foreign affairs. Treaty supporters say that Lisbon would greatly increase the European Parliament's powers of "co-decision" with the European Council. Ireland would retain its commissioner under Lisbon, as the treaty would keep the European Commission team at 27. Without Lisbon, the Commission team would have to be reduced in size.