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U.S. President Joe Biden warned Russia Wednesday that it will pay a stiff price for a full-blown invasion of Ukraine, but sowed confusion by suggesting a "minor" incursion would prompt much less pushback from the West.

Biden said he did not believe that President Vladimir Putin wants a war, but said the Russian leader has created a situation that is proving extremely difficult to defuse — and that could easily "get out of hand" in the region.

"My guess is he will move in. He has to do something," Biden said during a press conference marking his first year in office.

He said Putin could be planning "something significantly short of a significant invasion" to test the United States and NATO that would be met with a lesser pushback from the allies.