<<Print>>

At the break of Thursday, February 24, 2022, the world watched on as Russia invaded the 603,548 km2 nation of Ukraine, Europe’s second-largest country, and that was not just any ordinary invasion of one country by another.

Ukraine, until the fall of the Soviet Union, was principally under the rule of Russia, but decided that it was ready to go independent by voting overwhelmingly to become a sovereign nation. However, like old and bad relationships, their former bosses never let them go.

Today, with pockets of disagreements and the suppression of Ukraine’s authority and sovereignty by Russia, this has escalated to the level of a full-blown war and the world has had to come out to condemn, or otherwise, call for the Putin-led Russia to ceasefire.

But the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, says their attack on Ukraine is only a “military action” aimed at protecting Moscow supporters from a supposedly “genocidal” regime whereas military and other experts say this is a launch of an invasion targeted at wiping an independent country off the map.

Ghana, the UN Security Council membership and Akufo-Addo’s central role

“Ghana is currently a rotating member for the next two years of the UN Security Council so the three deliberations that have taken place on the floor of the Security Council have all involved Ghana’s representative and there is going to be a fourth round of talks on the issue at the UN Security Council and so to that end, even though Ghana is not a major peace broker in the whole of this, we are a part and parcel of the deliberations.

“Mind you, when Israel and Hezbollah went to war in 2006, it was Ghana’s current president who read out the terms of the ceasefire because Ghana was then a rotating member of the UN Security Council and we are currently on this Ukranian issue,” those were initial comments by security expert, Irbard Ibrahim, when he spoke with GhanaWeb over the phone.

The significance, as he explains, of President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo’s role in past conflicts in other parts of the world, cannot be overlooked in a milieu like this. It is commendable, he adds, but even more quickly, he issues caution about this raging case of the Russian-Ukraine war.

He plays in the analogy of global fuel prices and why Ghana’s case should not matter in all of these.

“The world has become so globalized: a [sic] that falls in Kiev could have a rippling effect in far off Accra or any part of the world because of the way there is inter-state and inter-continental dependence in terms of global trade. But, third world governments like ours should be careful not to give a justification for a hike in petrol prices only because this is [sic] because there’re a few factors that will come to play.

“Number one, we don’t import from Ukraine or Russia, and so for me, the argument is moot even though the global line of supply could be affected in the long run. If this was for a week, I think it will be too early for any country to say they have already run out of reserve,” he said.

These views are different from what President Nana Akufo-Addo holds. Beyond the immediate interventions his government has made in getting Ghanaians in Ukraine out, the president noted how crucial a steady supply of crude oil from Russia is to stabilizing rising energy prices and supply-demand disparities in commodities in the country.

According to him, it could translate into the increased global oil and liquefied natural gas prices which could adversely affect many importing countries.

“Although the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is not happening on the African soil, the interconnectivity of the world economy and financial markets can trigger reactions in Ghana,” President Akufo-Addo said through his Minister of Information, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, in his initial comments on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“This means that fuel prices in the country are contingent on the ongoing conflict and likely to negatively impact Ghanaians, who, for apparent reasons, are already facing spikes in fuel prices.

“Not only will prices at the pumps rise; an increase in price on oil and natural gas will drive up the cost of electricity,” the President stated.

But Irbard urges even more caution because Ghana is partly involved with the UN Security Council.

“Because of our involvement with the UN Security Council and the fact that the world is now a global village, whatever happens should be a cause for concern for us but on the flipside, we don’t have any direct economic dealings in terms of oil trade or whatsoever with Russia or Ukraine and therefore, this shouldn’t be justification for increases in petrol prices.

“I think that Western propaganda seems to be throwing dust into the eyes of people who are observers of what is happening. First off, Russia is fighting a moral war and my reason is simple: there is no way the United States of America will allow an adversary like Russia, or far-east countries like China, build up militarily in its backyard, maybe in Mexico or in Canada. There is no way that the US will sit aloof that Russia should be piling up missiles in Mexico or Canada. I’m sure the US will even strike before consulting anybody in the world.

“So, let’s not deny Russia, as a world superpower, that geo-political fairness that NATO and the Western alliance are becoming too close for comfort to Russia and this is posing a serious existential threat to the national security interest of Russia. And mind you, Russia is not just any country; Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and all these nations that seem to be inclined to the Western alliance now only three decades ago were under the Soviet Union. So, it’s within its rights to fight this moral war even though the bloodshed and the sufferings of refugees and all that is regrettable,” Ibrahim Irbard stated categorically.

“I think Ghanaians should be careful how we consume news from the Western press. The US has no moral right to ask Russia not to fight. What moral justification did the US have to invade Iraq? Was there any direct threat to American interests by Iraq? They wanted Saddam Hussein’s oil. What right do they have to topple Ghaddafi and get him killed and decide? So, what moral justification do they have to demonize Russia for protecting its immediate environment from the infiltration of the Western alliance?

“Ghana’s government should be careful the kind of public pronouncements it makes. These are two major powers, two permanent veto-holding members of the UN Security Council, these are two nuclear armed nations, they are big players on the international scene, if they have issues, let them resolve the issues between them.

“But for Ghana to be stating its position in favour of the Western alliance against Russia, you don’t know where you’ll pitch your camp in terms of international relations in future,” he warned.

Economic downturns for Ghana?

A former Chief Executive Officer of the Ghana National Petroleum Cooperation (GNPC), Alex Mould, agrees that Ghana should not be so concerned about this war.

Rather than panicking, he has asked the government to focus on resolving the issue of high exchange rates which he believes could threaten petroleum prices more than the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

“I think Ghana is not too much of a problem at this moment because oil prices are not going to spike.

“Our concern should be more on the foreign exchange. We were buying foreign exchange at 6 cedis per dollar and now, it is over 7 cedis and 20 pesewas per dollar. That is what is going to increase the petroleum prices in this country.

“Like I said, the forecast for 2022 was 85 dollars for Brent now, it was initially pegged at 75 dollars. So, I don’t think there should not be any panic at the moment.

“However, government should ensure that we have supply of petroleum products. Russia supplies about 20 per cent of the gas oil in Europe and if that supply falls, there will be initial dangerous spike in gasoil, i.e. diesel,” he said.

Yet, the biggest interest that Ghana directly has in the happenings in Ukraine seems to have already been resolved.

On Monday, February 28, 2022, the first batch of 24 Ghanaians who were evacuated from Ukraine, touched down at the Kotoka International Airport via Qatar Airlines.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey, had already expressed the government’s concerns about the situation of Ghanaians living in the Ukraine.

“The Government of Ghana is gravely concerned about the security and safety of our over 1000 students and other Ghanaians in Ukraine and has asked them to shelter in places in their homes or in government places of shelter as we engage the authorities, our relevant diplomatic missions and our honorary consul on further measures,” a statement from her ministry earlier said.

How long or how further devastating this situation would turn out is one that not many experts are able to project, although there is no doubt that President Vladimir Putin of Russia will not be backing down any time soon with what seems like mounting pressure from the United States.

In Ghana’s case, whether our leaders will pay heed to the above admonitions and stay clear of the ensuing, that is yet to be determined but without a doubt, the eyes of the rest of the world will continue to monitor all the updates with the hope that it does not escalate into an even worse war.

Author: Etsey Atisu