Decorated Ghanaian entrepreneur, Bright Simons, has exposed gross inaccuracies in figures being bandied about as visitor numbers and revenue from the “Year of Return” initiative.
The “Year of Return” initiative was championed by the Ghanaian government to mark the 400th anniversary of the abolition of slave trade. It has been hailed as successful because it has put international media spotlight on Ghana as a tourism destination and has attracted global icons to the country.
While praising the initiative and its success, Bright Simons who is founder and president of mPedigree, pointed out exaggerations of the success of the initiative in terms of the number of visitors and revenue.
On December 16, 2019, the state-owned Daily Graphic reported that a “total of $1.9 billion has been generated into the economy through activities related to the ‘Year of Return’.
The source of Daily Graphic’s story was the Minister of Tourism, Arts and Culture, Mrs Barbara Oteng-Gyasi. She was quoted in the story as saying the “Year of Return” programme had also brought about an increase of over 200,000 in total arrivals into the country.
In an article titled “Year of Return” Success Needs No Embellishment, Bright Simons said the figures cannot be true.
According to Mr. Simons, who is also IMANI Africa’s Vice President in charge of Research, the government has projected the number of foreign visitors to Ghana in 2019 as one million people, and even if the projection is met, the “Year of Return” figures will still not be accurate.
“As at last count, 750,000 international visitors had made their way to Ghana in 2019. The Authorities are projecting total arrivals for the year to hit 1 million. This is however doubtful considering the proximity to year-end.
“But even if the numbers do hit 1 million, that would only mean a tiny fraction more than the 984,250 visitors who showed up in 2018, in fact a mere 15,000 more,” Bright Simons wrote.
On the revenue, he went on to explain why the $1.9 billion is a fabrication:
“According to Ministry of Finance computations, average spending per tourist was $1512 in 2014, rising to roughly $1800 in 2018. Let’s pad this to $2000; though with Cedi exchange rate depreciation outstripping inflation, foreigners should actually find Ghana about 5% cheaper than last year and might spend less.
Be that as it may, the “extra spending” that could conceivably be attributed to an increase in arrivals due to the Year of Return (if the projected 1 million visitors estimate holds up) would amount to about $30 million in this scenario”.
“By what conceivable mechanism can a $30 million optimistic projection mutate into $1.9 billion?” Bright Simons asked.
“As already hinted, growth in tourist numbers in 2019 may well be below the average 3% per year rate seen over the last couple of years (and certainly below the 5.1% annual growth rate trend experts have projected between 2017 and 2027).”
From the above analysis, it is not likely that the 1 million international visitors projected will be met. And even if it is met, it will be difficult to attribute all additional 15,000 international visits to the “Year of Return” initiative, which brings government’s credibility in communicating the success story of the commendable initiative to question.
Ghanaian officials are basking in glory and ecstasy following a very successful marketing and branding campaign for the “Year of Return”, an initiative of the President of Ghana marking a major timeline in the sordid history of black slavery.
So far, impressive feats of national showcasing are there for all to see: tons of positive international press, great mentions and fabulous celebrity endorsements, most of it at no cost whatsoever to Ghana.
So why is Ghanaian officialdom so keen on selling the success of the initiative on the tabletop of incoherent statistics and woolly numbers instead of better cataloguing these clear achievements? It is a very strange sight to behold. Is this sad spate of fuzzy arithmetic just another example of how as a country Ghana struggles to master data-driven policymaking or is this an isolated case of mere overexuberance?
I know that no malice is intended, but before I am pummeled to pulp for being a killjoy, let me hasten to point out that sound data is important for drawing accurate inferences.
Unfortunately, various government agencies and supporters of the Year of Return program have bandied figures such as “200,000” extra arrivals, “1.5 million” total visitors and “$1.9 billion” extra tourist spending as measurements of outcomes related to the Year of Return with zero commitment to using actual, widely available, statistical data.
This means that instead of focusing on what so spectacularly went well – the brilliant coopting of African American celebrities like Steve Harvey as informal brand ambassadors – we shall soon be luxuriating in fictitious numbers bearing no resemblance to reality.
Here is the data we do have. As at last count, 750,000 international visitors had made their way to Ghana in 2019. (https://mobile.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Year-of-Return-Ghana-Tourism-Authority-reveals-the-number-of-diasporan-visitors-815566) The Authorities are projecting total arrivals for the year to hit 1 million. This is however doubtful considering the proximity to year-end.
But even if the numbers do hit 1 million, that would only mean a tiny fraction more than the 984,250 visitors who showed up in 2018, in fact a mere 15,000 more.
According to Ministry of Finance computations, average spending per tourist was $1512 in 2014, rising to roughly $1800 in 2018. Let’s pad this to $2000; though with Cedi exchange rate depreciation outstripping inflation, foreigners should actually find Ghana about 5% cheaper than last year and might spend less. Be that as it may, the “extra spending” that could conceivably be attributed to an increase in arrivals due to the Year of Return (if the projected 1 million visitors estimate holds up) would amount to about $30 million in this scenario.
By what conceivable mechanism can a $30 million optimistic projection mutate into $1.9 billion?
As already hinted, growth in tourist numbers in 2019 may well be below the average 3% per year rate seen over the last couple of years (and certainly below the 5.1% annual growth rate trend experts have projected between 2017 and 2027). There is further grounding for such speculation in the author’s estimate of a rise in hotel and short-stay apartment rooms inventory and a fall in average room rates based on an analysis of several weeks of Booking.com (a major travel site) data.
But all this should really be beside the point since no data-conscious person would insist that every successful marketing exercise must necessarily bear fruit even whilst it was still underway. There is almost always a timelag before results materialise. The danger in elevating phantom figures to the level of truth is in the complacency they can breed. So that instead of girding our loins to build on this successful marketing exercise and translate the increased awareness about Ghana and its enduring international goodwill into tangible tourism gains, we would instead declare victory on all fronts, relying on shaky, unchallenged, numbers and then promptly relapse into business as usual.
The only reason, therefore, for sounding the alarm about these widely publicized and widely believed numbers is the wish to forestall such a bad outcome and to motivate the authorities to see their successful marketing and communications strategies as merely the foundation on which to erect a truly effective sales plan for Ghana’s tourism and investment climate potential.
And we absolutely have their back.
Source: theghanareport.com
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Reading the comments here, I am not surprised that Ghanaians always get taken for a ride by these politicians! Ghanaians are clearly some of the dumbest people in the world. The guy says in 2018 985000 people came to Ghana. If as the ministry is saying 1 million will come in 2019 then the best year of return could have contributed is 15000. If each of these people spend $2000 then the most money year of retun has brought is $30 million. Very sensible point. Look at the ***barred word*** people are writing in responds. That is why this country is such a joke! dumb!
I am beginning to think that Prez. Nana Addo is on the right path to achieving his Ghana beyond aid agenda hence putting fear in these western powers. As a result they have cleverly started using those think tanks that are under their sponsorship to deliberately shoot down Nana Addo's government. If not how on earth could such a think tank like IMANI full of experts get these simple figures wrong. How can the total amount spent by 750,000 people with each spending about $2,000 be equal to $30 million. How could a whole IMANI with great experts get this simple calculation wrong. The last time IMANI wrote a damning report about our cocoa industry claiming farmers are not happy under Nana Addo's administration. This report came out after Ghana and Ivory coast for the first time became the determiners of Cocoa prices through the intiative of Nana Addo and Prez of Ivory Coast. The chocolate factories in the western countries were not happy so I guess the Netherlands sponsors of IMANI started to push IMANI to play those games. Some of us understand these international political tricks very well.
We have dubious criminals in the name of Anas using land guards to kill, steal and blackmailing all in the name of journalism and you people are shut. We have ambassadors of America and Europe interfering with our local politics and you suckers are quiet. Again these embassies getting lucrative contracts for their country businesses and taking almost 90% of profit for 40years away after those embassies dubiously coniving with another corrupt man called Mahama because that is how they thrive with corrupt government. These are the same people funding this ***barred word*** organisations parading themselves in Ghana as think tanks and fronting their biding. Your people never talked about the numerous criminal Mahama admin contract that was signed and led to Ghana almost on his knees. But for the shared spirit of Ghanaians who ushered Nana Addo, we would have been beggars in our own country. Yet as clueless as you are, you have the nerve to lampoon the hardwork this administration has put in to obtain such a great success with very little or no resources to start with. I mean only a bitter person will have time to access such unrelated topic amidst all of serious things bothering us. You should be ashamed of yourself and its high time we strip all this ***barred word*** organisation in Ghana who are doing the bidding of the west.
Please provide your version of the figures and leave the rest to the populace to judge.
Aha, I don't get it if One million visitors spend $1900 per visitor we have $1.9Billion. This means the ministry is close to the figure. What is IMANI's problem?
The IMANI doomsayers, if 1 million visitors and each spending GH2000 simple calculation should gives this number, so what is the beef only IMANI magicians has another calculations.
Why has IMANI chosen to be the prophet of doom in Ghana? The best thing to do was to ask the Ministry of Tourism to furnish the nation with the data supporting their figures. It is improper for a "think tank" or an "unthinking tank" to go public to challenge a whole ministry with no alternative data of your own but to try to deduce reasoning from incoherent arguments. The name IMANI is gradually becoming synonymous with noisemakers.